RUNNING OUT
The following is an extract from my novel—Diary of a
Spoiler—and is available as an e-edition for free by sending me an email at wbes6646@gmail.com
“The world disintegrated before our eyes. Nothing but sheer chaos. Famine, violence, looting. Somehow I lived through it all and
survived. Those born after this near
apocalyptic ending called me a spoiler.
They still lived in the shadows of what once was, a world that would
never be theirs . . . ever again.”
A lot of my articles and novels are based on our complicit
tribal behaviors and that ingrained human habit of constantly minimizing and
underestimating our impact. I will start
with some sobering numbers. In mid-1996
the human population stood at 5.77 billion and by year-end it rose to
5.82. By steadily adding 81 million more
people each year we surpassed the 8 billion mark in 2022 and we’re now at 8.3
and counting. In less than 35 years we
have added 2 billion more people to the Earth’s human population. A census taken in 1902 pegged our numbers at
2.5 billion. In the year 1 AD
anthropologists estimate that we numbered around 0.5 billion and when we follow
some of the written historical accounts of the time, it is abundantly clear
that even with those relatively small numbers, our impact on the environment
and other lifeforms was already horrendous.
Carrying capacity.
There are scientists galore all around the world who study
humanity, our needs and impact, and most agree on what they call a ‘carrying
capacity’ of around 3 billion people, as in the maximum number of our species
that the environment can support indefinitely with the added caveat—only if
human societies deploy less harmful technologies and with best management
practices—and do so without delay.
Earth is huge with a total land surface of over 57 billion
square miles. 33% is desert and 24 % is
mountainous, which leaves 15.77 billion square billion miles of habitable land,
minus scrub land, barely arable land, roads and cities and rural
dwellings. We have paved enough roads to
go back and forth to the moon with ten lanes going in each direction.
The 3 billion figure is a generous one and most agree that if
we persist with our frivolous consumer habits and wasteful practices that we would
be hard pressed to provide for 2 billion and get away with it. If we don’t restrain ourselves and change our
wasteful practices and consumer habits we would need a planet 4 to 5 times
larger than the current one. Hence the
heading of this article. Running low is
bad enough, running out will be absolutely disastrous.
Keep in mind that there
is no planet B.
The cost of progress and modernity is obviously not
sustainable as we are keeping our societies afloat on a sea of red ink. Global debt is well over one hundred trillion
dollars, mostly accrued by all levels of government and through personal debts
in the form of loans, credit cards and mortgages. Money issued to provide for essential goods
and services, money invested in capital projects; all with the intent to grow
economies and populations; and with the intent of course that all these
investments would provide a handsome return . . . eventually! . . . and that
the revenue and taxes generated by all those additional billions of consumers,
would pay off or at least pare down these debts considerably.
Pixie dust.
Not is the word! Not
going to happen. Miscalculation? The cost of keeping it all together is
greater than what the planet can generate and regenerate. Going back to the premise of my novel Energy
& Origin; our superior energy intake
and use exceeds what is realistically available and we’re rushing through what
remains.
All of us are complicit in keeping up a charade of pretense
and well-intended plans, pretending that as a species we’re headed towards a
veritable Nirvana, an earthly paradise, bliss for all, and all that jazz.
The planet did
extremely well without us.
No such worries in the natural world that, before humanity’s
emergence as a superior species, managed quite handsomely for billions of
years, surviving natural and celestial calamities and disasters. The natural world has always been a
not-for-profit affair, without balance sheets and quotas, without profit
targets and market shares. In other
words, it only takes what it needs and never more. It manages to do so this without a drastic
reengineering of environments and laying waste to huge tracts of natural lands,
rivers and lakes. A symbiotic
relationship that has worked rather well.
Not so much for us, because we are consuming everything in sight with an
unprecedented frenzy that is only accelerating.
We exploit, extract and waste and waste.
And waste some more!
Our habits and
consumption are the real killer.
The experts of the 3 billion max mark have issued this number
with a lot of trepidation because most acknowledge our duplicitous, complicit
behaviors and are well aware of how unlikely positive changes will take place
and yours truly who has studied humanity all his life will state categorically
that there is no snowball’s chance in hell that we will make a positive U-turn.
Because, what will we
do when we run out!
Once we caught on to the potential of oil we progressed
faster than ever before. Running out
will not be pretty because we haven’t found any alternatives that are as
plentiful and lucrative!
In 1867, the first oil well was drilled in Titusville,
Pennsylvania. Most of it wasted and
squandered because we really didn’t know what to do with the gooey stuff. Not at first.
But, boy, oh, boy, once we got a taste of fossil fuels and what you
could to with it, it unleashed the Industrial Revolution in all earnest and put
it permanently on a fast track. Progress
in technologies, manufacturing, farming and improved healthcare allowed for a
rapid rise in human numbers. We’re
living longer and better lives and have banished dozens of nasty diseases that
used to kill people by the millions.
What do you do with all
those extra people?
Especially if you no
longer need them!
A lot of the initial preoccupation with this huge increase in
human numbers centered on jobs, education, housing and how do we keep the
buggers happy and fed. Not a biggie as
long as demand doesn’t exceed supply. In
a world of plenty anything goes. Blind
to our excesses? Ignorance, greed and
stupidity have been powerful motivators in the human journey. We no longer live in a jungle, but we have
turned life into a jungle instead.
The party is almost
over.
However, in less than one hundred and fifty years we have
squandered the bulk of all those precious fossil fuels that currently keep our
economies running at full speed. But
what if we run out of natural gas that keeps our homes toasty and warm during
those cold winter months? What if we run
out of oil that keep our industries lubricated and provide the nearly
one-hundred thousand chemicals and artificial fibers and materials used in
manufacturing processes? Just to name some
of the things that keep economies and markets going. And let’s not forget another important aspect
of life; we still have to drink and eat!
Nuclear energy, wind and solar power and hydro-electricity
will keep the lights on and electric motors running, but they don’t fill up a
can of paint or produce a simple artificial fiber. More than 50 percent of the oil we use goes
up in smoke in the form of gasoline and diesel.
We go through nearly a hundred million barrels of oil on a daily
basis. It took nature over 250 million
years to transform carbon based deposits into oil. And now look back on a mere 150 years and
most of it is gone, and yet, oil is the lifeblood of our industries. Running short is bad, running out an absolute
disaster.
The nightmare of
running out!
We’re already coming up short in fish stocks, energy sources
and rare minerals and it shows in the number of conflicts that currently engage
several nations around the world. Russia
wants the Ukraine for starters; Trump wants Canada, Greenland and South America. China is content to ruffle the feathers of
Taiwan for now and India doesn’t know whether to hug Putin or wave goodbye,
keeping their fingers crossed that someone will supply them with the energy
they need to keep their industries going.
The sea of red ink is crimping the ambitions of an awful lot of governments. Systemic poverty. Failing nations. Dwindling resources and food supplies.
The show Musk go on!
Elon Musk is predicting that AI will come to the rescue and
that it will eradicate poverty. Perhaps
if we replaced (get rid of) 6 or 7 billion people with robotics and automation,
because if we don’t, those billions will still need to be fed and housed. Benign capitalism spreading the wealth
generated by machines into the pockets of the masses? What is he smoking? Will Musk lead the pack by donating his
trillion? Leading by example and the
super wealthy will sell off their yachts and homes and all of us will revel in
a new kind of humanity, one that is generous, mindful and considerate? Right!
And you think that I exaggerate from time to time?
Billions of people are now working tirelessly to stave off
the poverty faced by billions. Taxed to
the max. It is a losing battle and
global tempers are fraying. Tempting the
masses with a Utopia filled with a blissful existence and the pursuit of
excellence is part of a dreamscape of Elon’s rather optimistic vision and
perhaps motivated by a scenario that will see investors flock to his
enterprises, buoyed by his enthusiasm and message of hope. His huge rockets will continue to go up and
come back in the form of a tiny capsule with no precious return cargo on
board. Promise the moon! And deliver what?
We have never been
short of pinning our hopes on something miraculous to get us out of a nasty
fix.
AI will not pay back our huge debts. It will not curb deficits. It will not fix anything financial or arrange
for a smooth supply of goods and services.
AI will not replenish the fish stocks in our oceans, lakes and rivers,
nor will it get it rid of all the contaminants embedded in soil and water. AI will not restore the bounty of nature that
we have destroyed, it will not get rid of smog, pollution, global warming and
the tens of thousands of landfill sites around the globe. It will not feed the bellies of people going
hungry or give them a lifestyle free from suffering and poverty.
Trust the Musk? Tell that to the people who were at the
receiving end of his short term as the head of DOGE.
Our numbers will do us
in.
There is no equality in
disparity.
I am predicting a future that will follow the blueprint as
told in my novel Diary of a Spoiler and that running out of fossil fuels will
trigger a global implosion. We will die
fighting over scraps. When and how
fast? I don’t have a crystal ball but as
a realist I do know that humanity will not make a U-turn for the better, one
that transforms our behavior from destructive to benign, supportive and
beneficial. The processes we have set in
motion can only function when running at optimum capacity. It is based on plenty of energy, of keeping
the train on track and running at full speed.
We have created a world filled with contradictions. Transformative change will not be forthcoming
from a species that is utterly selfish.
Too many ill-defined potentially catastrophic scenarios are in
play. Whether the final wedge will be driven
by shortages, by running out, aggravated by bad debts, religions, color, race
or cultures, it doesn’t really matter because there is no equality in
disparity.
In previous articles I have stated and explained that the
issues we face are greater than the solutions available. It stymies governments around the globe. Do yourself a favor and read Diary of a
Spoiler. The horror of running out is on
full display and it may fill you with a sense of unease.
As a companion, purchase Energy & Origin by W.M.A. Bes,
available on KDP Amazon.ca
As always, feel free to comment or share.
No comments:
Post a Comment